Americans are on track to receive the Biggest Tax Refund Season In US In 2026 with many households expected to receive between $1,000 and $2,000 when they file their taxes next year, a development President Donald Trump said is a direct result of the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
“Next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time,” Trump said last week during a prime-time address from the White House.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” rewrote key parts of the tax code for the 2025 tax year, but because the IRS did not update paycheck withholding tables after the bill passed, millions of workers have continued to have taxes withheld at higher rates throughout the year. As a result, much of that money is expected to be returned in a lump sum when taxpayers file their returns next year.
The law also includes several other changes such as establishing a higher standard deduction, an increased cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, an additional $6,000 deduction for seniors, and provisions eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay and car loan interest, among other measures.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said those changes, combined with unchanged withholding, will translate into sizable checks for households next year.
“I think we’re going to see $100 [billion]-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000 and $2,000 per household,” Bessent said.
Why these refunds matter to American families
For many Americans, a tax refund is the biggest single payment they receive all year. The Trump administration has repeatedly hinted at these expected refunds as a major financial boost. This is the time when families in America are struggling with high costs and tight budgets, so a ‘gigantic’ refund, as hinted, would bring major relief.
“I also had the honour of being the IRS commissioner, and I can see that we’re gonna have a gigantic Tax Refund Season In US In 2026 in the first quarter because the working Americans do not change their withholdings,” Bessent said on All-In Podcast.
An analysis from investment bank Piper Sandler reached estimated that refunds will rise by roughly $1,000 on average, with middle and upper-income households seeing the biggest increases.
Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) said in an early December memo that 2026 is shaping up to be “the largest tax refund season,” citing the Piper Sandler analysis.
“Waitresses, welders, seniors, moms and dads will have more money in their pockets to put food on the table and afford the higher cost-of-living that was driven up by Democrat spending under President Biden,” Smith said in a release. “Congressional Republicans and President Trump are keeping our promise to reward hard work and help American families, farmers, workers, and small businesses succeed and have a more secure future.”
However, the Congressional Budget Office found that the bill disproportionately benefits higher earners, with the top 10% seeing an average gain of $12,000 annually, while the poorest 10% could lose $1,600 a year.
The US tax filing season begins in January, with most Americans submitting their returns before the April 15 deadline. Refunds are usually issued within 21 days after a return is filed. Frank Bisignano, the first CEO of the Internal Revenue Service and also the commissioner of the Social Security Administration, said people should expect exactly what President Donald Trump has been promising. He made the remarks during an appearance on Mornings with Maria on Tuesday.
Who will receive benefits
Bessent said the size of the refund will depend on income levels, as well as how much a person earns from tips and overtime pay. However, independent analysts, cited by Newsweek, have raised concerns about the long-term impact of the law, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, or OBBBA.
Groups tracking federal spending said the bill will increase the US budget deficit. They also argued that most of the benefits will go to higher-income Americans and large businesses, rather than low-income households.
Why refunds could be bigger than usual
Trump signed the OBBBA into law in July, but its tax provisions apply retroactively from the start of 2025. That timing is key. Bessent has said before that this retroactive structure means refunds in 2026 could be much larger than normal, since most workers did not adjust how much tax was taken out of their paychecks during the year.
The White House has supported this claim by citing research from financial services firm Piper Sandler. According to estimates cited by CBS, the average refund could rise by about $1,000 compared to the 2025 tax season. It might reach roughly $4,151 per filer.